Reading OpinionJournal – Peggy Noonan (paid subscription required) on the Democratic “fervor” over Kerry got me thinking. As stated in other many articles I’ve read…
The reigning cliché is that they’re simply Democrats who want to win, who’ve settled on him as the guy who can beat George W. Bush. I think of them as union operatives, union leaders, savvy teachers union communications directors, party operatives and party donors. Which is to say the party establishment that Howard Dean threatened and John Edwards has not so far succeeded in seducing. But when Democrats are on fire over the electability of a man and not the man himself–well, if I were a Democrat I’d worry about that down the road.
When putative candidate Kerry is dinged and dinged again by the journalistic and political vetting process, when his votes and stands and record are inspected for implications, when the conviction that he’s electable begins to wane–and all these things will happen, at least to some degree–what will it do to pro-Kerry fervor in the rank and file?
To me this reminds me of a “momentum stock” pick. You purchase the stock because the price is rising. You really don’t know that much about the business the company is in, don’t know much about the fundamentals of the company. In fact, you’re not really sure exactly what the company does to make money. But you know that people are buying the stock and driving the price up. So, based upon the advice of your brother-in-law, you purchase some on the hopes of selling it later to someone else who is buying based upon momentum.
The problem with momentum stocks (and momentum candidates) is that eventually someone takes a look at the fundamentals and says, “Neah. I’ll pass.”
I do think there are those who admire Kerry based upon his views. There are those who see him as a taking courageous stands on issues and voting his mind. Those who would follow him even if he is the “momentum candidate”. But is there enough of those people when the shine starts to come off of Kerry?
Who knows. I sure don’t. I get a feeling that if Kerry wins, it won’t be because Kerry defeated Bush so much as Bush defeated Bush.
And that has certainly happened in the past.